Richard Carr is editor of iVT (Industrial Vehicle Technology)International magazine and its annual Advanced Lift-truck Technology International special edition. It is the world's leading magazine for designers and engineers of off-highway and materials handling vehicles, and received an 'Archie' Design Achievement Award from the FLTA in 2011 for promoting and inspiring good lift-truck design.
Fuel cells are one of those technologies that seem to have always been "just around the corner". Each year for the past decade, for example, the ITA's annual Business Trends Survey of its members has seemed to imply that market domination would most likely be "two to five years" away.
Now, however, this potentially promising technology could well be facing a fresh challenge, as new battery technologies, some of them benefiting from the increased R&D into electric cars and trucks, look set to close the performance gap between electric and IC trucks.
So the time seems right to gather together a small, select group of forward-thinking OEMs and seek their perspective on whether lead-acid batteries are indeed under real threat - and if so, from which new technology in particular? Our panel consists of four manufacturers spanning the globe, but each with their own regional outlook on these technologies: Europe, and Linde Material Handling, are represented by Dr Ralf Dingeldein, VP business line new trucks; Arlan Purdy, product manager for energy storage systems at The Raymond Corporation and Lew Manci, Crown Equipment's director of product development provide a North American perspective; while David Beatenbough, VP responsible for research and development at Guangxi LiuGong Machinery takes an Asian - or at least, Chinese - view.
Do you expect lead-acid to be a major part of the electric market in 20 years' time?David Beatenbough: Yes, at least in part of the world. A significant part of materials handling needs are in the developing parts of the world, and this will continue over the next 20 years. Although those regions will certainly become more advanced in the next 20 years, there will still be a requirement for a technology that is well understood, easy to maintain with simple tools, and safe.
Arlan Purdy: Lead-acid batteries are uniquely suited to many lift-truck applications and will be a major part of the market well into the future.
Lew Manci: We believe the lead-acid battery's demise is exaggerated. The technology possesses certain advantages, including its robustness and cost-effectiveness, compared with emerging options. And their weight is also an essential part of the counterbalance. We also see a complement of technologies that provide improvements in the energy storage of lead-acid batteries.
Ralf Dingeldein: In the long run, lead-acid will play a major role but there is a continuously growing market for new battery technologies. In Europe, legislation might play an important role in this development, with restrictions on the use of lead-acid batteries to be expected as soon as alternative technologies are market-ready.
So is there room for greater efficiency from lead-acid?DB: Probably, but it is likely we won't see much in the deep-cycle part of the battery market. Most of the technology research in lead acid seems to be directed towards the starting type of battery, and there does not seem to be much incentive to direct research towards deep-cycle applications.
RD: The lead-acid battery has existed for a long time so the technological maturity is quite high. Nonetheless there are certain - but limited - possibilities for optimisation.
We foresee the efficiency gains likely coming from the hybridisation of lead-acid with other technologies. For example, supercapacitors can be used to complement them to deliver momentarily highly efficient power.
AP: We think that most applications could see substantial increases in battery life simply by following recommended battery care practices!
What trends do you foresee in new battery technologies in lift-trucks, in both developed and developing markets?LM: One thing we are watching closely is the continued maturation of lithium-ion technology. We also see growing focus and interest in the hybridisation of lead-acid with other technologies to realise gains in battery efficiency and performance. Battery management is another area ripe for innovation that promises to optimise battery life.
RD: Currently, prices for new battery technologies are very high. In view of this fact, the application of technologies such as lithium-ion is more likely in developed countries. With falling prices, new technologies will be used in emerging markets, too.
AP: We expect opportunity charging in various forms to become more prevalent. Because there are unique considerations in materials handling that could affect the adoption of new battery technology, we can't just assume that new battery technologies will be suited to these applications.
DB: The things customers want to see are shorter recharge times, longer usage between recharging, better durability, better acceleration to top speed, flexibility for indoor/outdoor use, and lower replacement cost.
What are the main obstacles to widespread adoption of Li-ion (or other promising alternative), and how will they be overcome?DB: : Cost, and reliability in adverse operating conditions are big issues.
LM: We believe cost and complexity are two of the main obstacles to widespread adoption of lithium-ion - price differentials may be in the range of four-to-five times of the cost of lead-acid when comparing on a watt-per-hour basis. The complexity is primarily because of management of the cell power pack, i.e. thermal management.
A slightly less substantial obstacle is the negative perception many may now have of the technology given recent events surrounding the Boeing Dreamliner, which have highlighted the potential difficulties with the technology and played out on the world stage. That said, we still see opportunities in certain applications, and we see forklift OEMs using lithium-ion as the technology matures.
RD: The main obstacles are high prices and the legislation for handling lithium-ion technology. We expect prices to decrease significantly due to technical enhancements and the rising production numbers. However, legislation on technical standards for lithium-ion applications has to be established at the same time.
AP: For all energy storage alternatives, the primary obstacles are market-acceptable pricing and providing sufficient counterweight. Pricing for alternative technologies will depend on manufacturing efficiencies. The counterweight concerns potentially could be addressed by changing truck designs.
Let's have an estimate of when new battery technologies could achieve a majority share in the electric market?DB: 10-15 years in developed markets; 20-25 years in developing areas.
RD: This depends mainly on the price trend for alternative battery technologies, but we don't expect to see this within the next 10 years.
AP: Current battery technologies can fully meet the needs of a substantial portion of the market. Some specific applications where new technologies may provide an advantage might adopt those alternatives over a 10- or 20-year timeframe, depending on how much advantage there is for those specific applications.
LM: We expect that each will have their own niche applications based on each customer's unique needs.
What are you doing in terms of new battery technologies? And when might we see your first purpose-built ride-on truck of this type in production?RD: LMH constantly works on developing applications featuring new technologies - at CeMat 2011 we presented a pallet truck and a forklift truck powered by lithium-ion batteries. We continue to pursue these activities and we will include serial model trucks with lithium-ion technology into our portfolio.
AP: Raymond lift-trucks already have advanced energy utilisation built in - a design philosophy we call Eco-Performance, that delivers maximum economic and ecological benefits. You can expect Eco-Performance to incorporate market-leading energy utilisation in all of our new releases as part of our philosophy of continuous improvement.
DB: We are doing limited prototype work, and production is at least a few years out, so we can't be specific on dates as there are still too many variables in our distribution model.
LM: We continue to investigate and research emerging technologies to determine their applicability to our products and the customers we serve.
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