Germany looks like it will keep growing but the rest might slow a bit. You are correct it is down to the flow of capital into leasing companies. One interesting part from the slow down in 2008/2009 is there will not be as many forklifts coming of rental fleets that will effect the second hand market so new trucks might have to take this up. France will pick up and so will Italy and UK.
What effect the new engine emissions will have is unknown but as some companies are struggling with this in the 6,000kg - 8,000kg market and there seems to be only a couple of good engine suppliers with SCR for tier iiii final this a gain will have a effect on market in both north america and europe