No Tier iiii won't really have a effect it started in 2011 with engines over 130KW and this year with engines over 57KW. It won't really effect markets but will have a major effect on manufactures. The reason for this is that tier iiii is an interim part and tier iiii final in 2014 for 130KW and 2015 for 57KW will cause major problems as these will need a SCR system. From what i know there are manufactures who are having problems with the smaller trucks from 6,000kg with EGR that is mainly available these stem from heat and room when the SCR system is added that will cause more problems as major design changes will have to happen to fit the add blue tank and SCR system. In larger truck people who use a Volvo engine have the choice of the two system EGR or SCR some have decided that to go SCR would be better as this will meet tier IIII final. Cummings on the other hand only have EGR so they are stuck at the moment. Trucks under 5,000kg do't have this problem as there engines come from the automotive industry and are quite clean this is the main market in both North America and Europe.

What will be interesting will be will Asian manufactures want to develop a new range of trucks that are for a market that they don't sell much in and have the associated cost's.When there own markets don't need these new standards. In North America these big trucks are mainly Taylor or Hyster and in Europe Linde kalmar and hyster do well

The Tier 4 emission requirement is primarily for the equipment manufacturer. That is, by a specific date their new equipment production must be compliant with the Tier 4 standards. The end user does not have to convert their fleet to be compliant. The end user is responsible for the work environment and must comply with air concentration levels of of CO, NoX, HC, etc. Tier 4 lift trucks help the end user comply along with the in plant air exchange system.
Lift truck engine emission standards started in 2000 with Tier 1, then Tier 2 , 3 & now 4. Each phase getting tougher to comply with. & more costly.

Thanks Daveilift.

No one mentioned the Tier 4 emission requirements. Is that a reason why Europe may be adding to/replacing their fleet to become compliant? When did the sale of Tier 4 forklifts start or has it not even started yet?

Hi elephantroom i have had a look at jungheinrich annual report 2011. This seems to show that North American market is 17% of global market and Europe is 34%. But GPD in north america is 3% and europe is 1.7%. My only conclusion to this must be the rental market for forklift that is much stronger in europe to north american market. So that must be driving the replacement of forklifts in europe. in Asia the markets share is 39% showing China as strong growth area but i think the rest of Asia will catch up and improve the asia share much more meaning the global market might grow a little or the european and north american market share of the global market will shrink

this post broke the link, here are the instructions

go to: Investor Relations section of Nacco website
go to: Financial Data
go to: Non-GAAP & Other Reconciliations
go to: Lift Truck Market Size Data

Nacco did a good job of consolidating all the sources from around the world. Go to think link http://ir.nacco.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=107545&p=irol-financials , then on the "Lift Truck Market Size Data" link

Let me know if you have other data.

Elephantroom:

Could you please tell us the sources of your data?

Thanks.

Henrys:

I agree that growth rates generally move along with GDP growth... however, that doesn't explain the difference in forklift sales to each region. If you look at the GDP of Europe vs. the GDP of North America, its not double the size... but forklift orders for Europe are double that of North America.

Thanks, this was an interesting point.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Germany looks like it will keep growing but the rest might slow a bit. You are correct it is down to the flow of capital into leasing companies. One interesting part from the slow down in 2008/2009 is there will not be as many forklifts coming of rental fleets that will effect the second hand market so new trucks might have to take this up. France will pick up and so will Italy and UK.
What effect the new engine emissions will have is unknown but as some companies are struggling with this in the 6,000kg - 8,000kg market and there seems to be only a couple of good engine suppliers with SCR for tier iiii final this a gain will have a effect on market in both north america and europe

Daveilift:

That's good insight, thanks.

In your opinion, do you think a recession in Europe will cause the sale of forklifts to decline?

And will the leasing companies slow/suspend replenishing their inventory in the face of uncertain times? Seems like the associations that forecast forklift sales are still predicting growth for 2012 and 2013. Looks like in 2008, when financing/credit was an issue, forklift sales declined... perhaps its more closely linked with the ability to get financing, rather than GDP growth?! - what do you think?

Thanks again.

One reason might be contract hire is more popular in Europe than in North America so rental fleet changes happen more often around five years. About 80% of the European market goes on contract hire in the main markets of Germany ,France ,UK ,and Italy

My guess would be that the Europeans are not as frugal as Americans when it comes to investing in their businesses. Along the same lines I would expect that they also understand the "usable" life of a forklift truck better than we do and are more proactive at replacing old unreliable equipment.

North America's population is approx 457.2 million (est. for yr. 2011) - Canada 34.2 million, Mexico 113 million, United States 310 million or approx 9% less than the 500 million that was indicated.

That is a great explanation. Thank you.

Can I ask you for further explanation... the forklift sales to Europe is more than 200% that of forklift sales to North America.. however, the population of Europe is less than 200% that of North America - what accounts for the difference? (If I compare vs. Total Americas, the sales to Europe are 174% that of Total Americas)