Ken'ichiro Takase is senior manager of the Japanese Industrial Vehicles Association (JIVA). He has spent 17 years of his professional life with JIVA and now takes charge of its statistics program, collating sales figures by truck type and capacity each month. Forkliftaction.com News reporter Christine Liew spoke to Takase at the JIVA office in Minato-ku, Tokyo, soon after he returned from the Industrial Truck Association's annual meeting in Rancho Mirage, California.

The size of the Chinese forklift market is expected to overtake the Japanese market next year, says Ken'ichiro Takase.

This year, the Japanese forklift market is projected to be about 80,000 units while the Chinese market is projected at more than 75,000 units.

"Chinese forklift sales in 2004 were 70,000 units and, in 2003, 68,000 units," Takase said.

"All our members try to focus on the Chinese market now. Some members are starting to establish their own factories in China, for example TCM, Nichiyu and Toyota. Nissan has established a sales company in Shanghai but doesn't have a factory there. Mitsubishi has had a relationship with Dalian Forklifts for a long time."

However, Takase is uncertain if Japanese forklift manufacturers will increase market share in China in the next five years.

"Of course members try to expand their businesses in China but domestic manufacturers are still dominant," he said. "I remember Mr Su Enyi, the managing director of China Industrial Truck Association saying Chinese manufacturers have 80 per cent of the market share. I can't say what percentage Japanese manufacturers have because I'm not sure."

To expand in China, Japanese manufacturers are dependent on the growing Chinese economy and an increase in living standards as Chinese end-users still opt for cheaper forklifts.

"Japanese manufacturers try to expand their sales in the mid-end and over mid-end markets but in China almost all customers are still at the lower end market.

"As time goes by we will have the chance to expand in China as customers have more interest in forklifts that are environmentally friendly or customer oriented," he said. "Chinese customers are now only interested in price.

"Our members don't want to sell cheap products because they have pride in their products," Takase said.

On the growing Eastern European market, he said Japanese manufacturers were still trying to establish dealer relationships there.

"Our total exports to Russia have grown by double digit over the past year but members have no relationship with other Eastern European countries," Takase said.

A Goldman Sachs report, by Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman, published in October 2003, said the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) could collectively be larger than the G6 countries (USA, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany and Japan) in US dollar terms in less than 40 years.

"The relative importance of the BRICs as an engine of new demand growth and spending power may shift more dramatically and quickly than expected ... As today's advanced economies become a shrinking part of the world economy, the accompanying shifts in spending could provide significant opportunities for global companies."

The report said a key assumption underlying its projections was that the BRICs maintained policies and developed institutions that supported growth.

To view the Goldman Sachs report, click here.