A "S.W.A.G." From Across The Pond,

Base on the following premise based on my 40+ years in this industry: Capital equipment (forklifts fit here) and advertising expenditures are the first expenses taken out of users budgets when things start to slow down and the last items added to the budget when the economy starts back up.
Two key signs of a turn around are: 1. ) Used equipment sales start to pick up and 2.) Short term rental utilization significantly increases. Once the supply of "prime" or "good" used equipment dries up and prices start to escalate, new equipment sales will start to increase.

From the service tech/engineer stand point an increase in activity should follow shortly after (1.) & (2.) above, as used equipment sales are parts eaters and rental managers will initially want to "refurbish" their rental units first before they start to buy new.

When will this all happen is the key for those in the prodcut service area, my "guesstimate" it will be mid to late 2010 when this (forklift) economy will start to turn around. Two keys to the turnaround in the US, "I believe" are:
1.) The auto industry, meaning US based automakers and 2.) Building industry - new residential & apartments.
Both industries and their associated suppliers and dealers employee a significant % of our population of a wide range of incomes. The turn around will be slow but steady, not a "North East" curve increase but maybe an East North East type growth curve, but steady. Companies like the auto industry will be smaller and people will be buying more affordable housing rather than the house that are bigger and better than their friends and one they can really afford.

The next questions might be will it return to the levels of the mid 90's through 2006/7, probably not.

Forklift dealer organizations will shift even more towards the "mega" dealers as the small dealer and good independents will want cash in after hopefully surviving this "recession".

Look at it this way, it has been worse, in 1972 (might have 73) the USA ITA # set a record high - lead times were 52 weeks the next year was the worst ever - the market dropped 70+%. The ITA actually had a negative new order month. It was almost 4 years before things turned around to the levels of the "good ole" days.

That is my 3.4 cents worth.

This S.W.A.G. and a nickel won't get you a stick of chewing gum.

Regards,