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Market slow down
  • exalt
  • Dubai, United Arab Emirates
As the market for materials handling equipment slows down to a trickle will we now see more consolidation with forklift OEM’s

The materials handling market is now set to slow down by quite a significant figure and many markets including China will see fall of up to 50% on new equipment. Will this slow down see more and more manufactures either looking to sell their materials handling manufacturing business, or will we see companies Like Toyota looking to pick up more brands on the cheap to improve their product offering
  • Posted 17 Nov 2018 09:07 PM
Total replies: 50. Showing items 1 - 20 of 50 results.
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Replies
This article from Modern Material Handling seems to counter your forecast of doom & gloom for the future. Maybe you need a new crystal ball or your crystal ball is looking beyond 2021.

add www to the link below and replace (dot) with a.

(dot)mmh (dot)com/article/global_forklift_market_to_grow_by_nearly_7_through_2021

Have you informed your new $ investors for your zero emission forklift of your forecast that their ROI might not happen so fast.
  • Posted 17 Nov 2018 10:54 PM
  • • Modified 17 Nov 2018 11:02 PM by poster
  • exalt
  • Dubai, United Arab Emirates
well johnrj, sorry to tell you that our forecast is right and the market will drop dramatically, Our Investors agree with us on this one and they don't see any market recovery till 2022 / 2023

They are not in our investment for the short term and they are happy with our predicted ROI for after 2023


we are now at the end of nine years of growth and a dramatic fall is going to happen quite quickly starting in 2019 and going into 2020 / 2021

what will drive the recovery in 2022 will be new regulations on new equipment.


If you look at the car market you will see a massive decline in diesel car sales in the UK in the last three months
  • Posted 18 Nov 2018 01:33 AM
  • • Modified 18 Nov 2018 01:37 AM by poster
While diesel auto sales have declined petrol cars now represent 61.8% (11% increase) of the UK auto market. Forecasts for diesel auto sales in the UK is projected to be 5% of the total sales by 2030. Petrol, hybrid & other alternative fuel cars are taking up taking up the slack of the demise in the diesel auto car - petrol auto sales have increased, hybrids have also increased.
Many years ago in the US diesel engine were common to see in 2.5 ton to 4 ton pneumatic tire and press on solid tire forklifts. Not so much any more.
In the late 1970's diesel cars were popular in the US - but they died the death of a ragged doll, except for pick up (work)trucks. Many pick-ups in the US are driven for pleasure or just to be cool vs pleasure driving pick-ups and have gasoline(aka petrol) fuel engines

Here is an interesting article and the whys & wherefores of the diesel dilemma in the UK
www(dot)bbc(dot)com/news/business-43655703
  • Posted 18 Nov 2018 10:24 AM
  • • Modified 18 Nov 2018 11:47 AM by poster
  • exalt
  • Dubai, United Arab Emirates
What our research has shown us is there is going to be a slow down on all truck till at least 2021 before picking back up again in 2022.

This slow down will be bigger than the last slow down and will affect diesel trucks the most as customers will be unsure of future legalisation

Its has also indicated that by 2024 / 2024 diesel powered forklifts will account for less than 25% of the whole market, this will also include big trucks as well.
  • Posted 18 Nov 2018 06:24 PM
Exalt how can you say your forecast is correct, it is a forecast basically a prediction, maybe in 6 years you could come back and say it was correct but up to now it is just a forecast.
  • Posted 19 Nov 2018 07:38 AM
  • exalt
  • Dubai, United Arab Emirates
OK i'll say i believe our forecast will be correct,

Like you say only time will tell and yes it is a forecast,a forecast that i believe will be shown to be correct


But i 100% believe that Diesel powered trucks will account for less than 25% of total market sales by 2024 even in big trucks and mobile container handling
  • Posted 19 Nov 2018 08:35 AM
  • • Modified 19 Nov 2018 08:37 AM by poster
Must have one of those "genies in the lamp" working for him/her.
  • Posted 19 Nov 2018 01:34 PM
When I get my transporter beam perfected, there will bee no need for forklifts
  • Posted 19 Nov 2018 10:03 PM
  • swoop223
  • North Carolina, United States
this is more like a prediction not a forecast.
liftruck market is always in flux and goes up and down all the time.
at least in the US it does, can't speak for the EU though.
But with the ecomony booming in the US i can't see the market slowing down anytime soon.
Every year it slows down about this time of year anyway due to holidays etc and year end business cycles winding down, businesses always slow down a bit at the end of the year because funds allocations run out for current year budgets and as they prep for future budgets most management curb spending so they can get their annual bonus's etc ;o)

Based on his predictions is he calculating this using fuel market changes? Is he trying to combine his new energy miracle machine into this equation and starting up another angle to this here as well?
Only time will tell, we still need to see this miracle machine and it's market changing tech first don't we?

Not going to hold my breath on this one ;o)

You've been swooped!
swoop223@gmail.com
  • Posted 19 Nov 2018 11:53 PM
@swoop223
Sometimes Nov. & Dec. can see a mini boom at the end of the year due to Federal Government investment tax credit for capital equipment purchases. President G W Bush did during his term in office and President Trump did for the year 2018. As a sale person during those period you could make some nice end of year commissions as the customer bought from the party that could deliver new equipment by 12.31 - price was a secondary issue. Some dealers don't like to have unsold inventory at the end of the year - you snooze you loose.
  • Posted 20 Nov 2018 06:13 AM
During most up cycles sales of new equipment keeps most dealers going strong installing new equipment and doing warranty repairs / service. During most down turns instead of replacing equipment more is spent keeping equipment going instead of replacement. Most end users know this from experience. They will spend more on things that would not be repaired but replaced in an up turn. Smart management budget spend as much unspent budget funds as possible to prevent funding cuts in the new year. Upper management looks at it like this , if you did not need it last year you do not need it this year. I know I had it happen to me before
  • Posted 20 Nov 2018 10:33 PM
  • meyers
  • Alabama, United States
Most definitely slow this season
  • Posted 21 Nov 2018 12:23 PM
  • ChrisK
  • Kansas, United States
Will this be like the Superlift and you will just keep talking about it for years hoping someday it will come true?
  • Posted 30 Nov 2018 12:10 AM
  • exalt
  • Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Well the best things are worth the wait, but this post is about do people think there is a market slow down and will this result in consolidation in forklift OEM's
  • Posted 1 Dec 2018 07:09 AM
exhalt - in reply to your inquiry I offer these responses Yes, Possibly or Maybe - everyone is for sale at the right price. Speculation on what will or might happen produces rumors. Best not to speculate - it can get one in trouble. In other words - Speculation = "That dog don't hunt". Worked for Mitsubishi (MCFA & MDI -a Mitsubishi Corporation company - a trading company - that introduced the Mitsubishe F/L line to the US and Mexico markets in the States. The President of MDI(from Japan) frequently reminded us a good business policy that went something like this. "Rumors are rumors, facts are facts, deal with the facts, never a rumor."
Rumors are only allowed in the newspapers, politics, Hollywood and at gatherings at the company water fountain.
  • Posted 1 Dec 2018 10:47 PM
  • • Modified 1 Dec 2018 10:54 PM by poster
Totally agree with you John
  • Posted 3 Dec 2018 09:57 PM
  • exalt
  • Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Having seen the new Heli G3 series forklift could this be a challenger to the Korean OEM's Hyundai, Doosan and Clark might we see some consolidation with Korean OEM's, and might this see komatsu joining the MCFA TCM Nissan organisation
  • Posted 6 Dec 2018 06:46 AM
might or mite (both pronounced the same way) = a very, very small insect
  • Posted 6 Dec 2018 08:25 AM
Just two comments to make.
In relation to the diesel market. We have the next tier engine due and rumours are that they will be much more expensive so customers have a choice. Do nothing and keep their old forklift or change to a cleaner version which is either diesel or gas. this might be a culture shock to some customers.

I don’t think Mitsubishi will take on another brand. They still have not figured out what to do with the Uni Carriers since they took them over.
  • Posted 6 Dec 2018 08:41 PM
  • exalt
  • Dubai, United Arab Emirates
I agree that the next tier engines will see more customers look at electric trucks or gas trucks as against diesel trucks,

But seen this and thought it was quite interesting its a post by some one on how the market in the UK has changed and one of many replies


Just found this rental quote from 1990 while having an office clear out and it just shows how stupid the materials handling industry has become in giving away machines at ridiculous rates, 3 ton diesel, pretty standard spec, 7 year deal at £105.41 per week! We now see companies putting trucks out at nearly half the rate on 5 year deals nearly 20 years later, anyone can get deals by giving machines away, that's not selling, but what's the point in working for nothing, all of our costs and truck prices have gone up but our rates have gone down.


I was told that you got the cost of the forklift back after 3 years of rental, not the case now. I think that the manufacturers that don’t use a dealer network have a surplus of machines due to hitting factory production targets. Hence they get they but then at cost plus a bit (inter company transfer) and just get them out at any price. Cheap Chinese trucks don’t help. But neither are going away so you have to re-model your business and maximise all your profit centres. Servicing, repairs, keep your fleet healthy and win every hire you can. There are still some good rates out there.
  • Posted 7 Dec 2018 07:02 AM
  • • Modified 7 Dec 2018 07:04 AM by poster
Total replies: 50. Showing items 1 - 20 of 50 results.
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