The Monthly Confidence Index (MCI) of the United States’ equipment finance sector has remained steady month-on-month to sit at 62.4 in September, as business confidence continues to be elevated despite what one survey respondent describes as the “noise” of tariffs, mid-term elections and foreign affairs.

The MCI is a qualitative assessment of the USD1.3 trillion equipment finance sector produced by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA), based on the survey responses of those working in the sector.

Assessing business conditions in the next four months, 69.6% believe they will remain the same, down from 65.2% the previous month. A full 26.1% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve, unchanged from August. The percentage of executives who believe business conditions will worsen decreased to 4.4% from 8.7% in August.

When asked to assess the US economy, 91.7% of respondents state it is “fair”, down from 95.2% in August. Another 4.2% evaluate the current US economy as “excellent,” down slightly from 4.8 in August, with 4.2% evaluating it as “poor,” up from none in August.

Evaluating the economic outlook of the next six months, 54.2% expect the US economy to “stay the same,” down from 59.1% last month. Just 20.8% of respondents believe that US economic conditions will “get better,” an increase from 18.2% in August, with 25% believing economic conditions will worsen, an increase from 22.7% in August.

Survey respondent Charles Jones, senior vice president with 1st Equipment Finance, says: “Business needs to continue. Through the noise of foreign affairs, tariffs, and mid-term elections, there is still opportunity. The key is recognising borrowers who have prepared and continue to perform over time.  We can't predict the future, but we can prepare for it.” 

David Normandin, president and chief executive officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance, adds:  “While uncertainty continues on several fronts, 2026 has been and continues to be a solid year in commercial equipment finance. Originations are good, portfolio performance is good, access to capital is good. Earning share of wallet is competitive which is good for the business, and the overall business continues to grow. I think we will have a strong finish to Q3, and I am optimistic about the opportunities in the fourth quarter.”

Jim DeFrank, EVP and chief operating officer, Isuzu Finance of America, agrees.

“Outside of geopolitical considerations, I believe the industry is facing meaningful pent-up demand,” DeFrank says. “Many organisations have deferred equipment purchases for an extended period, and the continued maintenance of aging equipment is becoming increasingly uneconomical and operationally unsustainable. 

“As a result, I expect a wave of replacement and modernisation activity as businesses move to invest in newer, more efficient equipment to support growth and productivity.”