The Monthly Confidence Index (MCI), a bellwether for confidence in the equipment finance sector, dropped to 54.6 in April, down from 61.0 in March, the lowest level it has been since May 2025.

The MCI is produced by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) and provides a qualitative assessment from key executives in the USD1.3 trillion equipment finance industry

“Since more than eight out of 10 US businesses, ranging from small businesses to Fortune 100 companies, use at least one form of financing for their equipment acquisitions, equipment finance industry confidence is significant for companies across all industries,” the ELFA states.

Survey respondents for the April MCI “indicate then impact of the war in Iran on their outlook”, the ELFA continues.

When assessing business conditions for the next four months, 11.8%% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve, down from 29.2% in March. 

Those who believe business conditions will remain the same increased to 58.8% from 54.2% the previous month while the percentage of executives who believe business conditions will worsen increased to 29.4% from 16.7% in March.

When evaluating the US economy, no respondents believe it is “excellent”, unchanged from March, while 94.4% assess it as fair, down from 100% last month. A further 5.6% evaluate the US economy as poor, up from none in March.

Looking at the economic outlook for the next six months, 36.8% believe US economic conditions will worsen, up from 25% in March while 15.8% believe conditions will get better over the next six months, down from 20.8% in March. Another 47.4% expect the US economy to stay the same, down from 54.2% last month.

Survey respondent Jeffry Elliott, CEO of independent middle tier business Elevex Capital, says: “War in Iran has begun a global economic recessionary movement as many eastern nations lack access to oil and natural gas, which are major components to many sectors in their economies and cannot be readily replaced. Expect international markets to slide first, then contagion to US markets.”

David Normandin, president and CEO with Wintrust Specialty Finance bank, is more confident - though cautious - about the next few months.

“The year has started off with a strong first quarter of originations and growth of the portfolio,” he says. “We are optimistic of the opportunities that we will find strategy to execute on, but we are paying strong attention to portfolio performance and increasing bankruptcies to date in 2026.”