The Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), a bellwether of the state of the US logistics sector, has dropped 2.2 points month-on-month to be 68.9 in July.

While this is below the June reading of 71.1 (which had been the fastest rate of expansion since March 2022), index authors point out this is higher than any reading between 2023 and 2025, and represents a moderate rate of expansion for the sector.

The LMI is produced by researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), using responses from supply chain professionals.

It is calculated on a combination of eight unique components which make up the logistics industry, including: Inventory Levels and Costs, Warehousing Capacity, Utilisation, and Prices, and Transportation Capacity, Utilisation, and Prices.

A reading above 50.0 indicates logistics is expanding in the US; a reading below 50.0 indicates a shrinking logistics industry.

The July slowdown in expansion, LMI authors state, stems from slower growth in Inventory Levels - down 5.5 points m-o-m to 55 - which had seen a spike last year as respondents pulled inventory forward ahead of anticipated tariff increases in July. 

The July LMI also reveals physical logistics infrastructure continues to be strained, with both Warehousing Capacity (down 1.3 m-o-m to 46.3) and Transportation Capacity (down 2.4 m-o-m to 28.4) tightening. 

The lack of storage space has driven Warehousing Prices to 75.5, the fastest rate of expansion for this metric since January of 2025 in the initial rush of imports ahead of the anticipated tariff regime of the incoming second Trump administration. 

The Transportation Capacity reading is especially low, tying with the capacity reading from April of this year as the second-fastest level of contraction observed for any metric in the history of the index (slower only than September 2020’s Transportation Capacity reading of 23.8).

Despite this tightness, Transportation Price expansion has slowed (down 5.5) to the still-high level of 86.9, which is the lowest reading for this metric since the outbreak of hostilities with Iran in late February. 

Transportation Utilisation expansion has slowed as well, dipping 9.7 points from June’s reading of 74.7 (which is the second-highest rate of expansion in the history of that metric). 

“Transportation metrics continue to be the straw that stirs the drink for the LMI,” authors write. “Price expansion is prolific across supply chains, but is most driven by larger respondents, who reported expansion of 90.4 to 83.3 for smaller firms. 

“Prices have clearly been impacted by the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran.”

Authors say it is difficult to predict what will happen with the LMI next, “due to continued uncertainty in the overall economy”.