ANZ acting chief economist Warren Hogan.

The number of jobs advertised in print and online grew by 4.1% in August, the first monthly rise since April 2008.

Despite the increase, data from the latest ANZ Job Advertisements Series reveals that in trend terms, the total number of job advertisements still declined by 1.3% in August, following a 2.7% fall in July, to be 50.6% lower than 12 months earlier. The rate of decline in trend terms is weakening.

According to ANZ acting chief economist Warren Hogan, August’s growth in job ads is the strongest rate since December 2007.

"These data provide the best evidence we have received to date that the labour market (and the economy more generally) are about to enter the recovery phase of this downturn.

"So far in this downturn, the Australian labour market has been affected by cuts to hours instead of to employment, resulting in underemployment rather than unemployment (that is, employers have cut back on staff working hours rather than reducing their overall headcount). Indeed, the main driver of increasing unemployment has been rapid growth in the labour force due to strong population growth and high levels of participation.

"Once the recovery commences, this process is likely to happen in reverse, with work hours for existing employees creeping up again first, before total employment numbers begin to grow. It may, therefore, take some time to see sustained net job growth."

Looking further ahead, Hogan says the August numbers confirm optimism that the pace of decline in employment will not be as severe as envisaged six months ago.

"We now expect the Australian unemployment rate to peak at around 7.25% in mid-2010."